Predicting The State of the Economy in 2014

Created by Jeff Brown 11 Dec 2013 @ 07:55
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Businesses of all shapes and sizes are breaking out their "crystal balls" in an attempt to project the economic conditions under which they will operate in 2014. Over the last several years a sluggish economy and gridlock in Washington has hampered the growth of most businesses, and kept large amounts of capital on the sidelines. But some economic prognosticators are projecting a rosier picture for 2014. Take for instance this analysis by Kiplingers at http://www.kiplinger.com/tool/business/T019-S000-kiplinger-s-economic-outlooks/. According to their experts we can expect modest economic growth, low interest rates, reduced unemployment, and more capital spending. If the experts at Kiplingers are right, we could begin to experience the "recovery" we have all been waiting for. Certainly economic growth and capital spending are major drivers for the insurance industry, and the vendors who support it. So as you navigate through your own 2014 planning efforts, what are your experts projecting for next year? Let us know what you think is going to happen, and how your company is planning to respond.

Jeff Brown is the Founder & CEO of Market Luminary. He previously served as the Founder/CEO/President of Blue Cod Technologies. He currently serves on Advisory Boards for Yodil Inc., Northeast Outdoors Foundation, and William J. O'Brien Lecture Series.
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Favorable loss experience over the last year should free up budget dollars for investment in technology and expansion for most carriers.
Our 2014 planning is predicated on the assumption that we will see marginal growth across most of lines business, and level spending (as a % of premiums) on IT and strategic projects.
Honestly we are still gun shy about the economy and not really sure about what to expect next year. I would say our planning is pretty reserved and tentative right now.
Kiplinger has a pretty good track record on their economic indicator predictions, so I would tend to give some credence to their numbers. As for our company, our planning cycle occurs in early fall so we have already put our plan in place for 2014. We are somewhat dependent upon growth in the economy and some slight increase in interest rates. We do hope to put some capital to work as well as a means of improving our financial performance.